NEWS@BDO
Datum:
In Q2-2025, a total of 111 transactions in the automotive sector have been observed, which is in line with Q2-2024 (106 transactions). Compared to the record high transaction activity in Q4-2024 (139 transactions), deal count slightly decreased by 28 transactions or 20.1%.
Asian domestic deals made by far the largest contribution to Q2-2025 sector deal flow with 99 transactions. European domestic transactions contributed 58 transactions, followed by North America (34 transactions).
Main drivers of Q2-2025 M&A activity were transactions in the body & chassis, brakes, steering, exterior and interior segments while transactions in the EV segment did contribute to a lesser extent to the quarter’s deal flow activity.
In general, outbound deal flow remained muted in Q2-2025, a trend that has persisted for a while now. On the back of trade tariffs that the US government introduced at the beginning of Q2-2025 on cars, automotive parts, aluminum and steel, the sector’s regulatory environment remains very challenging. At the beginning of May 2025, a de-escalation in the global trade war gave hope for some alleviation but we expect that the automotive sector will still face a hard time going forward for various reasons.
As per July 2025, European automotive suppliers trade at an implied EV/EBITDA 25E multiple of 5.1x (median-based) which is an uplift of 0.5x EV/EBITDA multiple points compared to 4.6x as per BDO’s Q1-2025 valuation analysis.
North American automotive suppliers’ valuation levels increased even higher. The implied EV/EBITDA 25E multiple stood at 5.7x (median-based) in May 2025 compared to 5.0x as per the Q1-2025 automotive sector update.
APAC stock-listed automotive suppliers traded at an implied EV/EBITDA 25E multiple of 5.5x compared to 4.9x in the last quarter representing a valuation inflation of 0.6x EV/EBITDA multiple points.
In line with the observed mid-term historic trading pattern, North American stock-listed automotive suppliers continue to deliver share price outperformance over their European and Asian peers. Over the last three years, the North American automotive supplier peer group experienced a total share price appreciation of 70% compared to 14% of the APAC peer group and negative 8% of European peers.
Within our European automotive supplier peer universe, Schaeffler delivered the best share price performance (+28.7%) over the last six months (as per July 2025). Main driver of Schaeffler’s share price performance were recent solid financial results following merger with Vitesco in October 2024.
In North America, the share price of Adient performed even better (plus 36.9%) over the same period. The uplift is supported by several factors, including positive analyst ratings and a significant undervaluation based on forward cash flow models.
L6M share price performance of selected auto suppliers
As per the ACEA, new car registrations in the EU declined slightly by (-1.9%) to 5.58m units in H1-2025 (vs. 5.68m units in H1-2024). Per June year-on-year, the ACEA observes a (-7.3%) decline, underlining a challenging global economic environment for auto makers.
The total number of new BEV registrations in the EU rose by 22.0% in H1-2025 to 869k units (compared to 712k units in H1-2024).
Among the larger EU markets, the Spanish market achieved high growth rates in terms of both new car registrations (+13.9% in H1-2025) as well as for BEVs in particular (up +83.9% vs. H1-2024). On the other end, France car registrations H1-2025 declined by (-7.8%) vs. H1-2024, including new BEV registrations (-6.4% vs. H1-2024). German total car registrations for the same period are down (-4.3%), but BEV registrations rose by (+35.1%) compared to H1-2024.
In H1-2025, HEV cars still lead the market with 34.8% share of all EU car registrations, followed by petrol cars (28.4%) and BEVs (15.6%) while Diesel powered cars achieved a 9.4% share.
The PHEV and HEVs segments also experienced an increase in new car registrations during H1-2025 compared to H1-2024. HEV registrations increased by +17.1% to 1.94m HEV units. In Germany, HEV registrations for the same period increased by +9.9% (to 400k). In France, HEV registrations increased by +34.1k to 376k units. The somewhat less popular PHEV registrations in the EU increased by +19.5% to 469k units registered during H1-2025.
EU new car registrations with petrol or diesel engine are down, declining by 21.2% and 28.1%, respectively. German petrol and diesel car registrations show a similar trend, with new petrol car registrations down 27.8% to 397k units, and new diesel car registrations down 23.2% to 211k units in H1-2025.
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